Written by The Banking Post
OPEC+ is expected to raise oil output on Sunday, but the increase from October could be smaller than in recent months as global demand shows signs of slowing at the end of the driving season, OPEC+ sources said.
The group, which pumps about half of the world’s oil, has already boosted production by around 2.5 million barrels per day since April to regain market share and respond to pressure from US President Donald Trump to lower prices. However, prices remain near $66 a barrel, supported by Western sanctions on Russia and Iran.
Sources indicate that OPEC+ may raise output by at least 135,000 bpd from October, with some estimates suggesting a range of 200,000–350,000 bpd. At its last meeting in August, the alliance approved a 547,000-bpd increase for September.
A further hike would start unwinding the second layer of production cuts—about 1.65 million bpd—ahead of schedule. Discussions are focusing on gradual monthly increments to phase out the remaining cuts.
Brent crude futures closed at $65.50 per barrel on Friday, down 2.2 percent, pressured by weak US jobs data and anticipation of the OPEC+ hike. Despite earlier cuts, only Saudi Arabia and the UAE currently have spare capacity to add significant barrels to the market, analysts say.
OPEC+ continues to enforce two layers of cuts: an 1.65 million-bpd reduction by eight members and a 2 million-bpd cut across the group, in place until the end of 2026.
