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The National Board of Revenue (NBR) recorded only a modest improvement in tax collection growth in April, highlighting growing pressure on the revenue authority to achieve its annual target amid slowing economic activity.

According to provisional data, NBR revenue collection rose by nearly 7 percent year-on-year in April, after growth had slowed sharply to 2.67 percent in March.

The revenue authority collected Tk 390.59 billion in April alone. During the July-April period of FY26, total tax receipts reached Tk 3.26 trillion, marking nearly 11 percent growth over the same period a year earlier. Average monthly collection stood at Tk 326.92 billion.

To meet its annual target of Tk 5.03 trillion, however, the NBR will need to collect around Tk 885 billion per month for the remainder of the fiscal year.

Economists say revenue growth should remain around 15 percent to match inflation and nominal GDP expansion.

A study released by the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) on Monday projected that the revenue shortfall could reach Tk 1.0 trillion this fiscal year.

The government has set an overall revenue target of Tk 6.97 trillion for FY27, including tax and non-tax revenue, requiring growth of at least 42 percent.

Officials and analysts attributed the weak revenue performance to sluggish business activity, lower imports, weak investment inflows, tensions in the Middle East, rising fuel prices and persistently high inflation.

The widening revenue gap is expected to increase pressure on the government to manage public spending and secure external budget-support financing.

Up to April, income tax and travel tax collection grew by nearly 12 percent, while local-stage VAT rose 11.01 percent and import-export duties increased by nearly 9 percent.

However, VAT collection in April alone posted a negative growth of 3.17 percent, while income tax and import duties recorded growth of nearly 15 percent and 18 percent, respectively.

CPD Senior Research Fellow Towfiqul Islam Khan said the government has limited room to avoid a large revenue shortfall and urged authorities to adopt “extraordinary measures” to strengthen revenue mobilisation.

He recommended reducing tax exemptions, recovering arrears, bringing state-owned enterprises to the capital market, introducing a wealth tax and accelerating structural tax reforms.

“If the government ignores such reforms and continues at the current pace, the revenue shortfall could widen to Tk 1.40 trillion next year,” he warned.

Still, Khan expressed hope that revenue collection in May and June would improve compared to the same period last fiscal year, when collection was disrupted by protests related to NBR bifurcation issues.