Written by The Banking Post
A forecast by CAL Bangladesh that the Dhaka Stock Exchange’s broad index (DSEX) could surge to 10,000 points within the next two years has drawn skepticism from market operators, who say the target is unrealistic without structural reforms and fresh listings.
The DSEX closed at 5,379 points on Wednesday. To meet CAL’s projection, the index would need to gain 86 percent, or 4,621 points, by 2026.
CAL, a foreign brokerage house, based its outlook on macroeconomic tailwinds including easing inflation, stable currency, falling interest rates, and a projected 40 percent rebound in corporate earnings by 2026. It also cited a GDP recovery to 5–6 percent in FY26 from 3.97 percent in FY25.
But brokers argue that the current market lacks the drivers needed for such a rally. “The factors such as new IPOs required to make the prediction visible are still absent in our market,” said one broker, noting that significant index gains would require listings of major companies.
The DSE has not seen a single IPO in over a year. Market insiders say many companies are reluctant to go public due to dissatisfaction with the current valuation method, while the regulator has focused more on penalties than on easing listing bottlenecks. Amendments to public issue rules, mutual fund regulations, and margin guidelines are also pending.
Experts warned that the index could still rise sharply, but only through abnormal rallies in weak “junk” stocks, which could create another bubble reminiscent of the 2010–11 market debacle. “A rise to 10,000 points without new IPOs would not be rational and would be bound to burst,” one broker cautioned.
CAL’s Country Head, Deshan Pushparajah, defended the forecast, saying improved macro conditions would strengthen company fundamentals. “The companies will see significant bottom-line growth with lower interest rates and a suitably valued local currency,” he said.
CAL also acknowledged risks, including election delays, political unrest, global conflicts, and a possible US recession, which could derail its bullish outlook.
