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Bangladesh’s trade with India has taken a dramatic turn as restrictions at land ports force businesses to reroute shipments through Chattogram Port. The shift has set records in cargo volumes but also piled pressure on the country’s busiest seaport.

National Board of Revenue (NBR) data shows imports from India through Chattogram more than tripled in July, hitting 479,625 tonnes worth $521 million. Exports, though much smaller in size, also soared—up 176% in volume and nearly fourfold in value to $74.97 million.

The surge has continued into August. Partial NBR figures suggest exports from Chattogram jumped from just 8,116 tonnes last year to 76,255 tonnes this year, while imports fell by a third in volume but still rose slightly in value.

Land ports sidelined

Trade disruptions began after New Delhi imposed sweeping restrictions in May, banning several Bangladeshi goods—including garments, jute, and processed food—from land crossings. Earlier in April, Dhaka had barred Indian yarn imports through land ports.

As a result, cross-border shipments by road plunged 26% in July and 52% in August. Once the backbone of bilateral trade, gateways in West Bengal, Assam, and Tripura now sit idle, while businesses bear higher maritime costs.

“The trend of exports to India has been upward for years, but mutual benefits depend on removing these barriers,” said Mahfuzul Hoque Shah, former director of the Chattogram Chamber of Commerce and Industry. He urged greater use of Mongla Port to reduce reliance on Chattogram.

Sector winners and losers

Ready-made garments, which make up more than a third of Bangladesh’s exports to India, have weathered the shift. In July, shipments rose 19% year-on-year to $62.8 million, with Indian buyers absorbing higher freight charges.

Other industries are struggling. Jute exports collapsed 74% in July, while food exports fell 17%. Chattogram-based BSP Food Products cut its workforce by more than half after losing access to northeastern Indian markets. Pran-RFL reported a 14% drop in sales, citing long delays at Nhava Sheva Port.

Port under strain

Already handling over 90% of Bangladesh’s external trade, Chattogram Port is now grappling with congestion and delays. “We are ready to handle the additional pressure created by increasing exports to India via the seaport,” said Omar Faruk, secretary of the Chattogram Port Authority, adding that capacity had recently been expanded by 10%.

Business leaders, however, argue that piecemeal measures are not enough. They are pressing for long-delayed Bay and Laldia terminals to be fast-tracked to ease congestion.

Fragile growth, rising risks

Despite disruptions, Bangladesh’s exports to India rose 11% in FY2024–25 to a record $1.76 billion. But June saw a 19% slide, highlighting the fragility of growth under mounting restrictions.

Analysts warn the current surge in seaborne trade may prove unsustainable. Abdur Razzaque, chairman of the Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID), estimated that shifting trade to Chattogram raises costs by about 25%. “If land ports remain inactive during crises, supply chains will face serious risks,” he said.

Economist Moinul Islam described relations with India as the weakest in decades. “The restrictions came from the Indian side, leaving Bangladesh little room but to seek improved ties. Unfortunately, I don’t see much hope as New Delhi is not recognising the interim government,” he said.

With two-way trade worth over $14 billion last year, analysts stress that easing political tensions is as critical as expanding port infrastructure. Without both, they warn, the fragile gains seen at Chattogram could quickly unravel.