Written by The Banking Post
India is set to increase Russian oil imports in September, traders said, defying punitive US tariffs aimed at curbing the trade and pressuring Moscow into a peace deal with Ukraine.
Three trading sources said Indian refiners plan to raise purchases by 10–20 percent, or 150,000–300,000 barrels per day, compared with August levels. The move underscores New Delhi’s determination to secure discounted crude despite Washington’s objections.
India has emerged as the biggest buyer of Russian oil since Western sanctions forced Moscow to redirect supplies in 2022. In the first 20 days of August, India imported about 1.5 million barrels per day of Russian crude, equal to around 1.5 percent of global supply, according to Vortexa data. Russian oil now accounts for roughly 40 percent of India’s total needs.
The US, under President Donald Trump, has sharply criticised India for “profiteering” from discounted Russian barrels and on Wednesday raised tariffs on Indian imports to 50 percent. New Delhi insists it is working diplomatically to resolve the dispute while Prime Minister Narendra Modi courts stronger ties with Moscow and other partners.
Analysts say India is unlikely to scale back Russian purchases. “Given India’s increasing domestic refinery runs amid discounted barrels, we don’t see India scuppering imports in meaningful volumes,” BNP Paribas noted.
Russian crude remains attractive: Urals cargoes for September are being offered at $2–$3 per barrel below dated Brent, wider than August’s $1.50 discount. “Unless trade economics shift significantly, Russian crude will likely remain a core part of India’s supply mix,” said Sumit Ritolia of Kpler.
A sudden halt could jolt global markets. Brokerage CLSA estimated that stopping India’s imports would cut global supply by about 1 million barrels per day, potentially driving oil prices toward $100 a barrel.
Russia, meanwhile, has more crude to export after Ukraine’s recent strikes knocked out nearly 17 percent of its refining capacity. Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy, the two largest Indian buyers, did not respond to requests for comment.
The full impact of US tariffs and tighter EU price caps on Russian oil may become clearer in October cargoes, which are set to trade in the coming days.
