Written by The Banking Post
Global trade in goods and services is expected to surpass $35 trillion in 2025 for the first time, according to a new report by the United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
The report says global trade is projected to grow by about 7 per cent year-on-year in 2025, adding roughly $2.2 trillion to last year’s total, even as geopolitical tensions, higher costs and uneven demand continue to weigh on the global economy.
UNCTAD noted that trade growth remained resilient through the second half of 2025. Unlike previous years, the expansion has been driven mainly by higher trade volumes rather than price increases, reflecting relatively stable global demand after the inflationary surge of recent years.
East Asia led global export growth, posting a 9 per cent increase over the past year, while intra-regional trade in the region jumped 10 per cent. Africa and South-South trade also recorded strong gains, underscoring the rising role of emerging economies in global commerce.
The report highlighted a structural shift in global trade patterns, with friendshoring and nearshoring gaining pace as companies and countries increasingly trade with politically aligned or geographically closer partners.
Looking ahead, however, UNCTAD struck a cautious note. Trade growth is expected to slow in 2026, amid weaker global economic activity, rising debt burdens, higher trade costs and continued uncertainty in the international environment.
