Written by The Banking Post
Net sales of National Savings Certificates (NSCs) dropped sharply in the first four months of FY26, highlighting mounting pressure on household finances and waning interest in retail government savings tools.
Bangladesh Bank data show net NSC sales fell 53.62 per cent year-on-year to Tk 23.69 billion during July–October, compared with Tk 51.08 billion in the same period of the previous fiscal year. Analysts say persistent inflation and tighter liquidity have eroded disposable income, leaving small investors with little scope for long-term savings.
The downturn began in July, when sales slid 41 per cent year-on-year to Tk 12.93 billion. The situation worsened in August as net sales dropped to just Tk 2.79 billion from Tk 20.36 billion a year earlier. September marked the sharpest fall, with sales plunging 95.5 per cent to Tk 3.73 billion, down from Tk 83.33 billion in the same month last year.
October, however, offered a brief respite. Net sales turned positive at Tk 4.24 billion, reversing a Tk 32.25 billion deficit recorded in October last year. Even so, the broader July–September quarter remained weak, with net sales falling 52.6 per cent year-on-year to Tk 19.45 billion.
The slump has also reduced the government’s outstanding liability through savings certificates. The total balance stood at Tk 3.41 trillion in October, down 2.85 per cent from a year earlier.
Dr Masrur Reaz, chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, says the steep fall reflects severe stress on household budgets. “With real incomes under pressure, small savers are focusing on daily expenses rather than long-term savings,” he says, noting that lower effective returns and stricter compliance requirements have further reduced the appeal of NSCs. Unless inflation eases and confidence improves, he warns, retail savings instruments will struggle to support government borrowing.
Changes in interest rates and tighter oversight have added to the slowdown. The five-year Bangladesh Savings Certificate currently offers 11.83 per cent for investments up to Tk 0.75 million, with lower rates for higher slabs. The effective first-year return has also been cut to 9.74 per cent from 10.13 per cent.
Meanwhile, mandatory use of e-TINs and national identity cards under the National Savings Certificates Online Management System has curbed misuse by large or speculative investors, but at the cost of lower overall sales.
Although FY25 ended with a smaller deficit of Tk 60.63 billion compared with Tk 211.24 billion in FY24, early indicators from FY26 suggest the government may face difficulties meeting its domestic borrowing targets through savings certificates.
