---

Bangladesh faces mounting economic pressure as global oil prices approach $120 per barrel, a level that could add Tk 610 billion to its annual import bill.

A study by Change Initiative warns that every $10 increase in Brent crude prices adds প্রায় $1 billion in extra yearly expenditure, exposing the country’s vulnerability to global energy shocks.

Heavy import dependence

With around 95% of its energy needs met through imports, Bangladesh remains highly exposed to international price volatility.

Researchers caution that if oil prices stay above $120 for a prolonged period, the additional burden could rise to $4–5 billion annually, creating significant fiscal strain.

SMEs at greatest risk

The small and medium enterprise (SME) sector—accounting for 70–80% of employment and up to 30% of GDP—is expected to bear the brunt of rising fuel costs.

Higher energy prices would inflate production expenses, erode competitiveness and potentially trigger job losses.

Analysts warn that prolonged subsidies are unsustainable, meaning the government may eventually be forced to adjust domestic fuel prices—raising the risk of industrial slowdown.

Push for renewable shift

Researchers say the crisis also presents an opportunity to accelerate investment in renewable energy.

“Countries like China, India and Vietnam have stabilised industries through renewables. Bangladesh must act now to protect its future,” said a lead researcher.

The study highlights rooftop solar as a key solution, noting that installations in industrial zones could cut operating costs by 30–50% while significantly reducing emissions.

Using just 10% of unused industrial space could generate 57 megawatts of solar power and reduce carbon emissions by over 51,000 tonnes annually. Doubling that coverage could further strengthen energy security.

Climate goals and opportunity

The গবেষণা also points to potential carbon credit earnings, estimating around $0.40 million annually from emission reductions in SME clusters.

Sectors such as leather, plastics, packaging and light engineering could cut emissions by up to 49% with targeted interventions.

The urgency aligns with Bangladesh’s climate target to reduce nearly 70 million tonnes of carbon emissions by 2035.

A critical juncture

With global oil prices climbing amid geopolitical tensions, Bangladesh faces a difficult path ahead.

Without timely action, rising energy costs could strain the economy, disrupt industries and impact employment.

But with strategic investment in renewables, analysts say the country has a সুযোগ to turn the crisis into a pathway for sustainable growth.