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Bangladesh’s economy is set to cross the $500 billion mark for the first time, with the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projected to reach $501 billion in FY2025-26, according to provisional estimates released by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).

The estimated GDP size represents a significant increase from $456 billion in the previous fiscal year, reflecting continued expansion of the economy despite a challenging global and domestic environment.

Per capita national income is also expected to rise sharply to $3,020, up by $251 or 9.06 per cent from $2,769 in FY2024-25.

The latest estimates point to a moderate recovery in economic growth. Real GDP growth is projected at 4.14 per cent in FY26, compared with 3.49 per cent a year earlier. However, growth remains below the levels recorded before the Covid-19 pandemic.

The services sector remained the main driver of the economy, expanding by 4.59 per cent during the fiscal year, up from 4.35 per cent in FY25. The agriculture sector also posted stronger growth of 2.78 per cent, supported by improved performance in fisheries and livestock.

In contrast, industrial growth slowed considerably. The sector is estimated to grow by 2.86 per cent, down from 3.71 per cent in the previous fiscal year, largely due to weaker manufacturing activity and declining output in the natural gas and crude petroleum sector.

Manufacturing growth is estimated at 3.31 per cent, significantly lower than the 5.83 per cent recorded a year earlier. Growth in large-scale industries fell sharply to 1.97 per cent from 5.94 per cent.

The natural gas and crude petroleum sector contracted by 10.73 per cent, extending its decline for a fourth consecutive year.

Despite the increase in overall economic output, key investment and savings indicators showed signs of weakness.

The investment-to-GDP ratio declined to 27.93 per cent in FY26 from 28.54 per cent a year earlier. Private investment fell to 21.53 per cent of GDP from 22.03 per cent, while public investment slipped to 6.40 per cent from 6.51 per cent.

Savings also weakened amid growing consumption pressure. Domestic savings dropped to 21.38 per cent of GDP from 21.98 per cent, while national savings fell to 26.93 per cent from 27.67 per cent.

Consumption continued to dominate economic activity, accounting for 78.62 per cent of GDP at current market prices. Private consumption alone represented nearly 73 per cent of the economy, highlighting the continued role of household spending in driving growth.